A number of apparent policy contradictions emerged in the run up to ANC’s Polokwane conference and have continued in the three months thereafter. Three of these have received media attention over the past two weeks and include Jacob Zuma’s macro economic views, the announcement of an audit on the ANC’s funding front Chancellor House, and Zuma’s endorsement of the Black Journalists Forum.

The most striking policy contradiction has emanated from Zuma’s efforts to placate a nervous investor and business community while at the same time playing to the expectations of his backers in COSATU and the SACP. The message to the corporate sector has been that nothing will change and that South Africa’s macro-economic policy will stay on track. This message was further reinforced when Trevor Manual announced a corporate tax cut in his budget ten days ago (though this was no doubt decided pre-Polokwane).

Manual’s tax cut did not go down well with COSATU and the SACP who said as much to the television cameras assembled on the steps of Parliament. Zuma on the other hand appeared to endorse the budget.  He even went a step further and told the Financial Mail this week that a debate was needed about labour market reform. Both COSATU and the SACP have long been fervent critics of Thabo Mbeki’s economic policies and it is difficult to see how they will accept the continuation of such policies under his successor let alone debating what they see as sacred labour market policy. There was therefore much speculation that Zuma’s economic policy was on the minds of delegates at the COSATU executive committee meeting in Johannesburg this week.

Large scale corruption was a feature of the state under Thabo Mbeki’s leadership. Literally tens of thousands of officials were implicated in various investigations.  A number of MPs were convicted of defrauding Parliament. Jacob Zuma’s African National Congress recently announced an audit into the activities of its funding front company Chancellor House. According to the Sunday Times the ANC’s treasurer general, Mathews Phosa, said that if anything untoward was discovered the law would take its course. A number of analysts have seen this as evidence of political infighting between the Zuma and Mbeki camps of the ANC. Others have congratulated the party for its initiative in opening its funding operation to scrutiny.

If the audit is a sign of a commitment to clean governance within the post Polokwane ANC this would be difficult to reconcile with the fact that approximately 15% of current ANC NEC members have post 1994 criminal convictions or are currently under criminal investigation. Mr Zuma himself faces serious charges and was in Mauritius last week in an effort to block prosecutors access to incriminating documents. On a personal level it is difficult to reconcile his own efforts to block prosecutors’ access to potentially incriminating evidence with the leader of a party committed to clean and transparent governance.

A third contradictory policy stance emerged this week with Mr Zuma’s endorsement of the Forum for Black Journalists meeting in Johannesburg. Appeals to racial unity and reconciliation within the ANC were dealt a blow by his endorsement. The merits or otherwise of the forum aside, the unceremonious ejection of white journalists drew no rebuke from Zuma. Regardless of whether this was simply a case of political misjudgment or an effort to cultivate sympathetic media coverage from black journalists, Zuma’s presence at the forum was difficult to reconcile with the image of a leader capable of uniting a divided South Africa.

The past ten days must have raised a number of questions about Mr Zuma in the minds of his supporters on the left and groups who would by default be on the right. Mr Zuma now finds himself in a precarious position where having played to too many constituencies he may loose the support of most of them. The antidote to this risk is to take a more concrete policy stance, particularly on the economy and on clean governance. The question then arises whether that stance will find Mr Zuma betting on the left or on the right to carry him to power in 2009. Make the wrong move and he opens the door to other potential presidential candidates such as the ANC’s Kgalema Motlanthe.

Frans Cronje, Deputy CEO

Forthcoming events

On 13 March the Institute host Gillian Godsell and Anthea Cereseto to speak in excellence in the public education sector. Click here for details.

In the last week of March and first week of April John Kane-Berman will present his annual South Africa Mirror briefings in Cape Town and Johannesburg. Details will follow and members and subscribers will receive posted and e-mailed invitations.

Forthcoming publications

The forthcoming Fast Facts takes a close look at Trevor Manual’s recent budget. It will also contain a write up of Andrew Kenny’s recent briefing to Institute members on the current electricity crisis.