Since 1996 more than 50% of Africans lived in countries where GDP grew at 4% per annum or higher for more than ten years. Real GDP growth rates for the continent have doubled from an average of 2.4% in the 1980s to 2.7% in the 1990s and now to over 4% since 2000. Sub-Saharan Africa has matched this trend closely, increasing its growth rates from under 2% in the 1980s to 4.5% since 2000. 

African growth has admittedly been off a small base and in a number of cases has benefited from the exploitation of oil reserves. But five non-oil exporting African economies (Mozambique, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Botswana, and Uganda) have grown at 6% per annum or higher for more than a decade. Including the oil producing economies of Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Angola, and Sudan that number rises to 9. 

A surprising statistic from the World Bank is that since 2000 Africa’s five top economic performers can compete with top Asian performers in terms of economic growth rates. With the economic success of many Asian economies widely hailed such a comparison is good reason to reassess attitudes towards Africa.

Africa still confronts obvious obstacles to growth including poor education, ineffective governance, and limited access to capital.  In terms of education for example only 60% of children in sub-Saharan Africa complete their primary education compared to 80% in Asia. The sub-Saharan African figure is however up from 50% a decade ago, while the Asian figure is itself up from 60%.

Corruption and governance failures are nowhere more clearly exposed than in Zimbabwe. But the veil of African silence and unconditional solidarity is beginning to crack with certain countries  expressing concern about events in Zimbabwe. The open condemnation of Zimbabwe by African civil society organizations and certain trade unions has filled the vacuum left by initial tacit official sanction of the political lunacy that has collapsed the Zimbabwe economy.

Capital formation arguably remains the single biggest impediment to African growth. As a share of GDP, private sector fixed capital formation in Africa fell from 13.4% in the 1980s to 13% in the period since 2000. But certain African economies notably Nigeria, Botswana, Uganda, Zambia, and Ghana have seen this indicator more than double since the 1980s.   South Africa saw this indicator fall from 23% to 13% and carries much of the responsibility for the continent wide decline. 

South Africa is often regarded as the economic success of the continent. Africa’s economic success is even occasionally regarded as dependent on events in South Africa. A number of South Africans also assume that South Africa is Africa’s richest economy but in terms of gross national incomes per capita seven African countries are arguably wealthier than South Africa.

While South Africa remains Africa’s biggest economy the data cited in this article suggests that Africa’s economic success can be accomplished with our without South Africa’s own growth – although South African private investment in Africa remains important.  With growth rates and political uncertainly clouding the outlook for South Africa it would be opportune to study more closely what policy combinations are leading many African economies to outperform South Africa.  Recent performances suggest that South Africa may in many cases learn more from Africa than the other way around. 

- Frans Cronje