SAIRR today

SAIRR Today: The great empowerment hoax (and how it saved South Africa’s economy) -11th March 2010 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2010-03-11 07:53

Some weeks ago the Institute published an online SAIRR Today column making the case that white South Africans may come to be seen as inadvertent beneficiaries of empowerment and affirmative action policy. The case made by the Institute was along the lines that cut off from state jobs and tenders, and often discriminated against in the public sector, many whites were forced to become more independent and entrepreneurial to maintain their living standards. This independence we described as a formidable economic asset. We cited substantial data on employment and incomes since 1994 to corroborate our case. Moneyweb columnist Denis Beckett has disagreed saying that ‘new racism, whether defined as AA or BEE or BBBEEE’ benefits no-one.

SAIRR Today: Is the British media racist or just reminding us of an uncomfortable truth? - 5th March 2010 — by Sonia Ludeke — last modified 2010-03-05 10:04

The British newspaper the Daily Mail has made headlines in South Africa for its coverage of President Jacob Zuma’s state visit to the UK. On his arrival in the country, the paper described Zuma as a ‘vile buffoon’ and a ‘sex-obsessed bigot with four wives and 35 children’. Zuma has responded by saying that the British Media is determined to protray Africans as ‘barbaric’ and cannot let go of colonial views towards the continent.

SAIRR Today: Student’s arrest welcome - 19th February 2010 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2010-03-05 09:44

This week a student at the University of Cape Town was arrested and detained in police cells for ‘insulting the president’ while a member of the opposition was thrown out of Parliament for doing the same. Both of these incidents are welcome, and the extensive media coverage they have received even more so, in that they might alert many complacent South Africans to the culture of political impunity and intolerance taking root in Government and the ANC.

SAIRR Today: Looters or liberators? - 11th February 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2010-02-11 16:13

Media reports suggest that the police have beaten and tortured a number of people while hunting for ‘community leaders’ in Balfour in Mpumalanga. This may be an early indication of how the ANC plans to deal with grass roots threats to its political hegemony in South Africa.

SAIRR Today: Take charge Mr President - 5th February 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2010-02-04 10:32

By the end of 2007 it had become clear that Jacob Zuma would become South Africa’s president. It appeared at the time that one of his stronger attributes as president would be his leadership ability. This was an ability he had demonstrated on a number of occasions in political spheres ranging from post-1994 KwaZulu-Natal to peace negotiations in central Africa. However with every passing week he seems to be less and less able to exercise effective leadership over his party and his government.

SAIRR Today: Whither the whites? - 29th January 2010 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2010-01-29 08:14

White South Africans are quick to complain that affirmative action and black economic empowerment policies have stymied their career opportunities and chances of economic advancement in South Africa. Curiously, however, a review of income and employment indicators for the country does not bare this out. Rather there is now some evidence that the white community may turn out to be an inadvertent beneficiary of the Government’s various empowerment and affirmative action policies.

SAIRR Today: Our sports teams in black and white - 22nd January 2010 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2010-01-21 16:26

Advocates of ‘representivity’ will be up in arms to learn that none of South Africa’s top three sporting codes is living up to the ideal of a perfect ‘racially representative’ society. A review of South Africa’s most recent cricket, rugby, and soccer squads reveals that not one of South Africa’s race groups makes up the ‘correct’ proportion of any national team. The fact that the general public appears not to be bothered gives the lie to the oft asserted claim that our society should strive to be ‘representative’.

SAIRR Today: How vulnerable is South Africa’s soccer World Cup to a major terrorist attack? - 14th January 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2010-01-14 08:44

The attack by Cabindan separatists on Togo’s soccer team at the current Africa Cup of Nations tournament in Angola has created some controversy about safety surrounding the soccer World Cup to be staged in South Africa later this year. A number of analysts and newspaper editorials have dismissed concerns at terror attacks in South Africa. Soccer authorities have called the idea ‘stupid’ and one newspaper even went as far as to suggest it was ‘racist’. However there is some evidence to suggest that a risk does exist.

SAIRR Today: Matric results: No surprises - 7th January 2010 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2010-01-07 16:15

The latest matric results released today show that South Africa is still struggling to provide a satisfactory education to its school-leavers.

SAIRR Today: A year in numbers – 17th December 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-12-17 14:40

In almost every respect 2009 was a most successful year for the Institute. We produced the widest range of research publications on the country out of all of South Africa’s policy organizations. These generated significant debate and media coverage. In tough financial circumstances we grew our client base and returned very pleasing financial results. Below follow some of the numbers that went into making 2009 a very good year at the Institute.

SAIRR Today: Rethinking the inequality risk - 11th December 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-12-11 09:06

Inequality between African South Africans is as great a political risk factor for South Africa as inequality between race groups.

SAIRR Today: Taxpayers and social welfare - 4th December 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-12-04 08:59

A comparative analysis of employment, tax, and welfare data shows that while more South Africans are paying individual income tax those taxpayers are also supporting more people on social welfare.

SAIRR Today: Empowerment which disempowers - 25th November 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-11-25 08:51

Yesterday morning John Kane-Berman delivered the following address to the Solidarity trade union in Pretoria. The text of the address is published as a somewhat early edition of our weekly column SAIRR Today.

SAIRR Today: Genocide is a charge too far - 20th November 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-11-20 11:35

The minister of health, Dr Aaron Motsoaledi, has blamed Thabo Mbeki and his administration for the Aids pandemic in South Africa. Dr Motsoaledi referred to a report that South Africa had 0.7% of the world’s population but 17% of people infected with HIV and Aids. The Young Communist League has gone even further and called for Thabo Mbeki and his health minister to be charged with genocide. Data the Institute has published in its annual South Africa Survey this month shows the extent of the death and suffering inflicted on black South Africans by the Mbeki administration’s HIV and Aids policies.

SAIRR Today: Implementing People's War - 13th November 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-11-12 16:17

When former state president FW de Klerk in February 1990 unbanned the African National Congress (ANC) and its allies, he believed he was laying the foundation for a process of ‘good faith’ negotiations in which all parties would be committed to peace, mutual compromise for the common good, and respect for agreements reached. But, the ANC never had any intention of regarding negotiations in the same way. Instead it saw constitutional talks as nothing more than an additional ‘terrain of struggle’: an adjunct to the people’s war it had been implementing since the Sebokeng unrest in September 1984. The ANC’s strategy was a variant on the Trojan Horse one, for it used its professed commitment to peace to secure the legal return of its armed wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe, thus bypassing the difficulties it had always faced in infiltrating its insurgents illegally. It then refused to disarm or demobilise Umkhonto, instead using its combatants to step up the people’s war in all its aspects. The ANC’s persistence with its people’s war in the early 1990s – at a time when De Klerk had already thrown open the door to a non-racial South Africa and repealed all major apartheid laws – cost a further 15 000 lives, three times the number killed in the first five years of the people’s war. Almost all those killed were neither policemen, soldiers, nor insurgents, but rather ordinary civilians, most of them black. In this address, delivered in Johannesburg on 10th November 2009, Anthea Jeffery summarises some of the key points from her book People’s War: New Light on the Struggle for South Africa, recently published by Jonathan Ball.

SAIRR Today: The new ‘whites’ - 5th November 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-11-05 07:57

Whereas prosperous white South Africans are often denigrated by the Government and the African National Congress (ANC), the new black elite are often portrayed as an example of progress in our society. That has been a peculiar distinction for the Government and the ANC to maintain. There is now some evidence to suggest that attitudes in the ruling alliance may be shifting.

SAIRR Today: Gordhan’s gamble - 30th October 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-10-30 08:59

While the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement has been well received by the financial and business press it does harbour a risk of South Africa confronting a debt-trap scenario at some point in the next decade. Considering the risks and the difficulty of predicting the country’s future GDP growth trajectory, history might find that the government erred in its fiscal response to the economic downturn.

SAIRR Today: Statement on Professor Jonathan Jansen, 22nd October 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-10-22 16:03

Last Friday Professor Jonathan Jansen was inaugurated as the rector and vice chancellor of the University of the Free State. Professor Jansen was also recently appointed as the president of the South African Institute of Race Relations. At his inauguration Professor Jansen made a speech about the future of the University of the Free State. The university is an extraordinary case in that it is a public institution that has come to represent ideals at odds with the equality, human dignity, and equal opportunity central to South Africa becoming an equal and prosperous society. It requires dramatic intervention in order to align it with those ideals. Professor Jansen has provided the university with a roadmap to meet those ideals. The path that he has charted for the University of the Free State also contains many the elements necessary for the success of our country. These range from the importance of leadership to the vexed issue of transformation. Inherent in the professor’s address was the message that human endeavor and hard work was necessary to overcome adversity.

SAIRR Today: The peculiar case of the Sakhile voter - 15th October 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-10-15 13:10

For fifteen years South Africans have been able to freely elect their government. But many communities, such as that in Sakhile outside Standerton, behave as if the ANC is an illegitimate regime. These communities are increasingly resorting to violence to get the Government’s attention. In most cases they turn to violence despite the legitimate democratic channels that are open to them to address their grievances. The government and the ANC are therefore quite correct not to tolerate such lawlessness and to deploy the security forces to crack down hard on any community that threatens violence against the State.

SAIRR Today: Jobs or polar bears? - 9th October 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-10-09 09:55

The environment is an increasingly important issue in global politics, and Green parties in much of the industrialised world are growing in strength. In Germany that country’s Green party regularly wins more than 10% of the vote, and was, between 1998 and 2005, a partner in the governing coalition with the Social Democrats. Currently Green parties govern as coalition partners in the Czech Republic and Ireland. Green parties also have representation, either at national or regional level in the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and much of Europe. A Green candidate, Ms Caroline Lucas, is the favourite to win a parliamentary seat in the British coastal city of Brighton in that country’s upcoming general election. If she is successful, it will be the first time that a Green politician is elected to the House of Commons.

SAIRR Today: Shooting the bastards - 2nd October 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-10-02 09:51

The 1998 decision by Parliament to amend Section 49 of the Criminal Procedure Act did a great deal of damage to the South African Police Service. Under President Jacob Zuma a new generation of politicians will now review the amendments.

SAIRR Today: The first step to fixing SA's schools - 25th September 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-09-25 10:40

Last week this column drew attention to the disparities in the matric pass rates and university entrance rates between the various race groups. African children had the lowest pass rates and rates of university entrance. This week we identify the South African Democratic Teachers Union (Sadtu) as one of the chief obstacles standing between the Government and a better system of education.

SAIRR Today: When A stands for abysmal - 18th September 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-09-18 11:03

The Department of Education made the results of the 2008 matric results, broken down by race, available earlier this month. The information was provided in the form of an answer to a parliamentary question. In January this year the Institute had requested the matric results, broken down by race, from the director-general of the department, Mr Duncan Hindle. He said that the information was freely available, but despite repeated requests for the data, it was never provided to the Institute. The data available makes for sobering reading.

SAIRR Today: Car Wars – the union strikes back! - 11th September 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-09-11 09:41

The court jesters were up to it again this week when the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) got into a tiff about how much of the peoples’ money could justifiably be spent on luxury cars for their leaders.

SAIRR Today: People’s War: New Light on the Struggle - 4th September 2009 — by Sonia Ludeke — last modified 2009-09-03 14:30

On Thursday 03/09/2009 a new book by Dr Anthea Jeffery, Head of Special Research at the Institute, was launched. Entitled People’s War: New Light on the Struggle for South Africa, the book has been published by Jonathan Ball Publishers. The book focuses on the political transition which brought the ANC to power in 1994.

SAIRR Today: HIV/AIDS - (Mis)understanding and (mis)information - 28 August 2009 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2009-08-28 13:03

If prevention is better than cure, how is South Africa measuring up when it comes to halting the progress of the HIV pandemic? From the look of things, our performance is not only poor, it is deteriorating.

SAIRR Today: Why local government can be affected by health policies - 21st August 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-08-21 11:40

‘A municipality must structure and manage its administration, and budgeting and planning processes to give priority to the basic needs of the community, and to promote the social and economic development of the community’, according to the Constitution.

SAIRR Today: Malema’s remarks bode ill for the future of South Africa - 14th August 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-08-14 10:54

The recent statements by the president of the African National Congress Youth League (ANCYL), Mr Julius Malema, that he was concerned by the number of ‘minorities’ running the economic portfolios in the Cabinet, is worrying.

SAIRR Today: Can a united opposition pose a serious threat to the ANC? - 7th August 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-08-07 12:03

There have been reports recently that opposition parties are planning to form a united front against the African National Congress (ANC), with an eye on the 2011 municipal elections. It is not clear whether there will be a formal union between the various parties, or whether a less formal electoral pact will be put in place.

SAIRR Today: The Great Matric Fraud - 31st July 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-07-31 11:59

An analysis of last year’s matric examinations is to be published in the upcoming South Africa Survey, and a worrying trend emerges. Although a cursory glance at the results would suggest that South African pupils are doing relatively well, a more detailed analysis shows that there is cause for concern.

SAIRR Today: How South Africa’s protest movement may develop - 24th July 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-07-24 11:01

Three months into the Zuma administration the government and the ANC are confronting protest action on a par with that experienced during the last years of the Mbeki administration. The reasons for the protest action are more complex than those commonly reported in the media. As important as the reasons behind the protest action is the question of how a South African protest movement might evolve.

SAIRR Today: The great nationalisation debate - populists, denialists, and fence-sitters - 17th July 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-07-16 14:14

Do the African National Congress and its allies want to nationalise private industry in South Africa? Many who have tried to follow the debate in the media over the last ten days are now thoroughly confused. While the Freedom Charter is quite clear about what it requires the views of the ANC and its allies are anything but. This week we publish the views of the ANC and some of its alliance leaders in their own words.

SAIRR Today: Blade: Sharp enough for the job at hand? - 10th July 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-07-10 11:03

The minister of higher education and training, Dr Blade Nzimande, recently said that the way South Africa determines who studies at the country’s universities should be re-assessed. Dr Nzimande said that experienced workers and school-leavers without matric exemption should be allowed to study at university. He noted that only 18% of last year’s matriculants gained university entrance, and said that this was not a true reflection of the potential of these matriculants. He was quoted as calling on universities to ‘do something extra to identify students with potential’. He suggested that universities could look into additional entrance exams to allow entry, but did not clarify how this would be managed. Dr Nzimande recommended that there be increased recognition of prior learning, to allow adults with work experience to study at tertiary institutions.

SAIRR Today: Going off at half cock – a better model for the management of guns in our society - 3rd July 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-07-03 09:05

Last week the Pretoria High Court issued a ruling effectively suspending several provisions of the Firearms Control Act of 2000. This piece of legislation had long been dogged by controversy. Firearms owners and their representative bodies will now go to court to argue the constitutional and administrative failings of the Act. The mess that the government’s handling of the Act is fast becoming does not revolve around the question of whether people should have guns. It is rather a question that raises important constitutional, governance, and crime prevention matters – not least of which is the law of unintended consequences. The Institute this week suggests a more workable framework for the management of firearms in our society.

SAIRR Today: Why the ANC can drop its alliance partners - 24th June 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-06-24 14:27

In the early 2000s a number of analysts predicted a split in the ruling ANC/SACP/Cosatu alliance. This scenario was along the lines that Cosatu and/or the SACP would split to form a new political movement. At Polokwane in December 2007, something very different happened when, instead of splitting from the alliance, the ANC’s partners appeared to capture it. But events since the April 2009 election suggest that theirs was a pyrrhic victory and that the split may yet happen.

SAIRR Today: Pricing poor black South Africans out of the Confed Cup - 19th June 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-06-24 12:31

The sight of half-empty stadiums playing host to Confederations Cup soccer matches in South Africa embarrassed both Fifa as well as local soccer authorities. Reports of poor attendance have been published in newspapers around the world and many foreign correspondents have raised questions about the pricing of tickets for the tournament. Their concerns are validated by a simple review of ticket prices as a proportion of average household incomes.

SAIRR Today: Strengthening the weak by weakening the strong - 12 June 2009 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2009-10-30 09:25

This week has seen the leakage of an internal African National Congress (ANC) discussion document outlining plans for a proposed national health insurance (NHI) scheme. Unfortunately the plan in its current state looks set to destroy private healthcare, and consequently cause a flight of skills from these shores that will cause untold damage to the economy.

SAIRR Today: A case study - N2 Gateway Housing Project – 5th June 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-06-05 11:54

The N2 Gateway Housing Project is an initiative which was started in March 2005 by the three tiers of government – the national Department of Housing, the Western Cape Provincial Government, and the City of Cape Town. All three tiers were, at the time, led by the African National Congress government.

SAIRR Today: Fifteen Years of Freedom and Democracy in South Africa - 29th May 2009 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2009-05-29 12:12

This week the Institute hosted a two day conference reviewing Fifteen Years of Freedom and Democracy in South Africa. After fifteen years of freedom and democracy under an ANC government, what gains have been achieved and how could they be consolidated? What weaknesses have emerged and how could they be overcome? As President Jacob Zuma and his Cabinet settle into their new jobs the Institute and its guests looked back on key events since 1994 and assessed how South Africa had fared in ten policy areas crucial to democracy, economic prosperity, and the liberation of the poor.

SAIRR Today: University racism risks government intervention - 22nd May 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-05-22 13:13

If former white, and particularly Afrikaans, universities do not get their act together to stamp out racist behaviour on their campuses it is now clear that the government will step in to do that for them. The government may see such action as the perfect foil to exercise greater control over the independence of these institutions. If that comes to pass the universities in question will have only themselves to blame.

SAIRR Today: Cabinet shambles will hinder delivery - 14th May 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-05-14 08:29

Jacob Zuma’s new cabinet is poorly structured and conceived. It will compromise the ability of the government to produce and implement coherent policy, particularly on the economic front. It will compromise accountability of individual ministers, undermine their authority, and vest an inappropriate monitoring and evaluation role in the government. At the same time it appears as if it took Jacob Zuma less than 24 hours to abdicate most of his presidential responsibilities onto Trevor Manuel. All of the above is wholly at odds with initial media and public reaction to the announcement of the Zuma cabinet. A number of business groups, civil society organizations, newspapers - including business papers that should know better, and even opposition parties where full of praise for the new cabinet. One opposition party was so impressed with the new arrangement that it even found itself playing a senior role in that cabinet. But the new cabinet is a shambles and this is why:

SAIRR Today: Where will the new government stand on affirmative action? - 8th May 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-05-07 17:02

One of the most interesting questions that will arise from the new administration of president-elect Mr Jacob Zuma, is how he will approach the question of affirmative action and employment equity. Two high-ranking officials within the ANC, the treasurer-general, Mr Mathews Phosa, and the deputy president of the party, Mr Kgalema Motlanthe, have been recorded as stating that the policy needs to be refined and reworked.

SAIRR Today: Watershed election or not? Time will tell - 1st May 2009 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2009-05-04 11:44

Last week’s elections results proved to be interesting in a number of ways, and may prove to be a watershed election for the country. The African National Congress (ANC) lost support in all provinces, bar one, losing its two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, the Western Cape was won outright by a political party for the first time since 1994, and the smaller political parties were all but annihilated at the polls.

SAIRR Today: Who would our readers vote for? - 24th April 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-04-24 08:13

The Institute has generated political controversy since its inception 80 years ago. Its forthright opinions and tough-minded research have incurred the wrath of countless political leaders. It has in recent years been accused of being a front for the IFP, the DA, and the ANC. In the run-up to this week’s election, the Institute ran an online poll to gauge which political party its online readers support. The results were surprising.

SAIRR Today: Beyond service delivery - 16th April 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-04-16 17:48

Electricity is being provided to 80% of South African households, up from 50% in 1995. There have clearly been improvements in the provision of electricity to all South Africans. While there are still over 2 million households without electricity, many who have electricity are using other sources of energy for heating, lighting, and cooking.

SAIRR Today: Xenophobia: Alive and well? - 9th April 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-04-08 14:38

With less than two weeks to go before the general elections on April 22, there should be concern that xenophobia is once again raising its head in South Africa, with the one-year anniversary of the May 2008 attacks fast approaching.

SAIRR Today: A view to 2020 - 3rd April 2009 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2009-04-03 10:34

This week the Institute completed a country-wide series of briefings, commissioned by a leading business organisation, to present a forecast of how South Africa might look in 2020.

SAIRR Today: Deeper implications of the Dalai Lama scandal - 26th March 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-03-27 13:40

South Africa Bars Dalai Lama From Peace Conference, read a headline from the New York Times. The headline was not from 1979 or 1989 but from 2009 – a full fifteen years into South Africa’s democratic era. This decision by the South African government to deny the Dalai Lama a visa to attend a peace conference in South Africa should serve as a warning about the government’s commitment to human rights and the rule of law.

SAIRR Today: What is happening in our prisons? - 20th March 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-03-19 08:50

Data regarding prisons and prisoners in South Africa shows that prisoners are dying in the country’s prisons at an alarming rate. The data raises questions about prison conditions and the management of prisons in South Africa. These questions have broader implications for the rule of law and commitment to human rights in South Africa.

SAIRR Today: Do liberation loyalties cause voters to vote ANC? - 13th March 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-03-13 15:39

In explaining why they have not been able to secure a greater slice of the vote many opposition parties suggest that past liberation loyalties cause ruling party supporters to remain loyal to the ANC. Despite the obvious racist implications that mainly black voters don’t vote rationally, this approach to political campaigning ignores the very real successes of the government in delivering services.

SAIRR Today: Agriculture reforms itself even as government plans its reform - 6th March 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-03-04 16:15

Ten days ago Stats SA released a comprehensive report on the state of commercial agriculture in South Africa titled, Census of Commercial Agriculture 2007. The report shows that the business of farming in South Africa is transforming itself at a remarkable rate. The chief trends, however, run strongly against the vision that the government has for farming transformation in South Africa.

SAIRR Today: A story of three municipalities - 27th February 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-02-27 08:39

The Institute recently published a very thorough report on development indicators for all district and metropolitan municipalities in South Africa. Employment, education, welfare, service delivery, finance, tenure status, and demographics were covered in great detail. It is a unique report that provides a wealth of insights into what is happening in South Africa. One of the many findings is how different the opportunity to ‘work’ is in South Africa depending on where you live.

SAIRR Today: Flying high – why government should dump the national airline - 20th February 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-02-20 11:47

South African Airways (SAA) has become some of the most expensive billboard space in the advertising world. Last week the finance minister announced a new R1.6 billion financial bailout to keep SAA afloat. A commentator reflected that R1.6 billion was a hefty price to pay to fly the national flag on the back of an airplane.

SAIRR Today: Manuel sets the agenda but will the ANC follow? - 13th February 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-02-13 14:37

Watching Trevor Manuel deliver his budget speech was in many respects as useful as its contents. In two off the cuff remarks, one to Zwelinzima Vavi in the public gallery to say less about tax policy, and one to MPs not to look away when he berated them for wasteful spending and careless oversight, the finance minister made it clear that he was losing patience with ill disciplined and ill informed politicians. He warned MPs that how money was spent, not the money itself, would bring about improved living conditions in South Africa. With South Africa now facing a budget deficit of 3.8% the next government faces a fiscal environment very different to that of its predecessor. Growth, as much as redistribution, will have to be prioritised to prevent South Africa from slipping into a debt trap.

SAIRR Today: Politics is about ideas not about ‘knobkieries and assegais’ - 6th February 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-02-06 07:48

Politics is about ideas not about ‘knobkieries and assegais’ was the message from the ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe when he was interviewed on News Night on the E-News Channel this week. In a week that saw isolated incidents of political violence in KwaZulu-Natal Mantashe’s comments were sensible, balanced, and mature. This is more than can be said for certain media and the Independent Electoral Commission’s (IEC) commentary on the same subject.

SAIRR Today: A challenge to the department of education - 30th January 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-01-29 08:10

This week the Institute told The Mercury newspaper that the actual output of the OBE school curriculum was in many respects no different to that of Bantu education. In their critique of the Institute’s statement, several organisations acted no differently to white South Africans of decades past, who from their own positions of privilege denied the suffering of young black South Africans around them.

SAIRR Today: An early forecast of South Africa’s 2009 election results - 22nd January 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-02-16 08:55

Based on current opinion polls and past electoral performances the Institute has deduced a likely outcome for the 2009 elections.

SAIRR Today: Zuma's options - 16th January 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-02-17 08:14

Following the Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA) ruling in favour of the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) regarding corruption charges against the ANC president, Mr Jacob Zuma, six options are open to Mr Zuma and the ANC. One of these is unlikely to succeed and one of the remaining five will certainly come to pass before the year is out. Ironically, despite what many observers have interpreted as a crisis for the ANC, four of these five options in fact result in an extraordinary degree of power coming to rest in the party.

SAIRR Today: Looking ahead to 2009 - 9th January 2009 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-01-09 11:46

The last Institute newsletter of 2008 looked back on last year, and the various political developments which had occurred, both positive and negative. In the first SAIRR Today of 2009, the Institute will speculate on what South Africa could expect going into 2009.

SAIRR Today: 2008 - the good, the bad, and the ugly – 19th December 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-01-06 09:40

2008 proved to be a tumultuous year in South African politics. A major new black-led political party was formed, President Mbeki stood down, and the country was gripped by the xenophobic riots of May 2008 which attracted world-wide attention.

SAIRR Today: Arms deal saga ensnares another top ANC leader – 12th December 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-01-06 09:40

The decision by President Kgalema Motlanthe to sack the director of public prosecutions, Advocate Vusi Pikoli, raises question marks over the commitment of the new ANC leadership to independent institutions and the fight against corruption. It also taints Motlanthe’s otherwise commendable tenure in South Africa’s highest office. As one of the few senior  ANC leaders to have commanded significant respect both inside and outside the ANC this is a significant blow to all South Africans.

SAIRR Today: Funding the ANC’s expanded social welfare programme – 5th December 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2009-01-06 09:40

If the next ANC government does not have the funding or the appetite for borrowing to fund its expanded social welfare plan it could simply seize private assets in pension and investment funds to make up the difference.

SAIRR Today: Unemployment and Poverty - An Overview - 28th November 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2009-01-06 09:40

The Institute presents the last in its series of overviews sourced from the latest South Africa Survey. This article focuses on the long terms trends observed in the spheres of unemployment and poverty.

SAIRR Today: Service delivery - An Overview - 21st November 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2009-01-06 09:40

The Institute presents a brief overview of the progress of service delivery in the country, based on data appearing in our latest South Africa Survey.

SAIRR Today: Education - An Overview - 14 November 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-11-14 11:51

The Institute provides a brief overview of the state of education in South Africa, using data from our latest South Africa Survey.

SAIRR Today: ANC rebels - a new scenario - 7th November 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-11-07 09:08

Much has been written about the threat posed to the ANC by Mosiuoa Lekota and his breakaways. But a greater threat arguably exists to the DA whose centre-right position in South African politics could now face a credible challenge for the first time. The DA will need to get its MPs out of hibernation if it plans to contest this threat.

SAIRR Today: Global slowdown will hit SA hard - 31st October 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-10-31 11:14

The credit squeeze in international financial markets and the floundering of several foreign financial institutions has been intensively analyzed in South Arica’s financial press. The international crisis together with fears of global recession have led many analysts to comment that South Africa is better positioned than many parts of the world to weather the crisis. But is this in fact the case?

SAIRR Today: South Africa Survey 2007/2008 - 24th October 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-10-24 08:24

This week saw the advance release of the online version of the South Africa Survey for 2007/2008. The Survey was first published by the Institute in 1946/47. It remains the leading reference guide to all aspects of South African life from social and development trends to economics and politics.

SAIRR Today: Participation in the economy - 17th October 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-10-17 07:58

The question of re-pricing BEE share transactions in light of the fall in the value of the stock market provides some interesting perspectives on the extent to which black South Africans have obtained access to the higher echelons of South Africa’s formal economy. With certain BEE proponents now all but admitting that the policy will never benefit the broad majority of South Africans it is cause to reflect that education and sound political management provide the best chance of economic upliftment for black and white South Africans alike.

SAIRR Today: Winds of change at the Union Buildings - 10th October 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-10-10 07:58

Ten days ago the Institute attended a briefing at the Union Buildings hosted by the head of policy in the Presidency, Mr Joel Netshitenzhe. The briefing was held to launch a 15 year review of the government’s performance published by the Presidency. Media reporting on the briefing missed many pertinent points made by Mr Netshitenzhe and generally failed to convey the tone of the briefing.

SAIRR Today: Politics above education - 19 September 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-09-19 09:39

According to a Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) published in 2007, South Africa has the world’s worst performing education system. Prospects for improvement are uncertain. The claim that education for most black pupils was better under apartheid than it is now is no longer made only by organisations such as the South African Institute of Race Relations (SAIRR). Professor Mamphele Ramphele, a former vice-chancellor of the University of Cape Town, and Ms Wendy Luhabe, the chancellor of the University of Johannesburg, also now take that view.

SAIRR Today: Halt this bill! - 12th September 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-09-12 07:38

The Films and Publications Amendment Bill has passed through the two houses of Parliament and is waiting for President Thabo Mbeki’s signature before becoming law. But it is a sinister and ill conceived piece of legislation and the president would be well advised to refer it to the Constitutional Court for an opinion on its constitutionality.

SAIRR Today: Is the Presidency more than a one-horse race? - 5 September 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-09-05 10:47

Are Mathews Phosa and Kgalema Motlanthe making a move to position themselves as presidential candidates in the run-up to the 2009 elections? Their recent statements suggest that such a move might win significant support while undoing much of the damage that the reckless statements and campaigning of the Zuma camp of the ANC have done to South Africa’s reputation. Those wanting a political solution to the Zuma crisis need perhaps look no further than these two men.

SAIRR Today: The beginnings of a global health disaster? - 29 August 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-08-29 12:31

Against the backdrop of a faltering public sector, South Africa now faces a public health threat that is perhaps as serious as the HIV/AIDS pandemic. That threat is TB, and more specifically, extensively drug resistant TB (XDR-TB). This specialised form of TB is one that is resistant to the two first-line treatments, and at least three of the six classes of second-line drugs.

SAIRR Today: Examining the health of healthcare - 22 August 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-08-22 14:10

Healthcare is one of our biggest weaknesses in South Africa, and the signs point to things getting worse before they get better.

SAIRR Today: Violence in schools - 15 August 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-08-15 17:36

“Children were asked if they felt safe at school, and many did not. That is worrying, but it should not then be taken that these children are in fact not safe. Feeling something does not make it so.” (Education director general, Mr Duncan Hindle, 6 February 2008 )

SAIRR Today: South Africa: Sliding into pseudo-democracy - 8th August 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-08-08 10:03

At the national conference of the African National Congress (ANC) held in December last year, at Polokwane, it was decided that the Scorpions would be dissolved. The matter finally reached Parliament last week. According to the chairwoman of Parliament’s portfolio committee on safety and security, Ms Maggie Sotyu, Parliament will indeed dissolve the Scorpions. Ms Sotyu noted that Parliament’s job was to ‘implement the policies of the ruling party’.

SAIRR Today: A false dawn for Zimbabwe - 1st August 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-07-31 16:41

There has been much speculation in the media that the Zimbabwe negotiations taking place between the MDC and ZANU-PF in Pretoria herald a new dawn for that country. But the talks, and their success or failure, are falsely heralded as breakthrough in Zimbabwe’s crisis as the problems and challenges Zimbabwe face are now as much about economics and social conditions as they once were about politics. Improving those conditions may take decades regardless of who runs the country.

SAIRR Today: Provincial development key to national poverty alleviation -18th July 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-07-17 15:38

The reported decision by the ANC to axe provincial premiers in the Western Cape and the Eastern Cape has again focused the spotlight on provincial performance. The Institute has for several years run a programme to monitor and support the work of the nine provincial legislatures in South Africa. This project has found that, while great developmental disparities exist between provinces, these often have more do with historical and geographical factors than with the political leadership within provinces. Correcting the imbalances may require granting greater autonomy to provincial government.

SAIRR Today: Mann and Mugabe - 11th July 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-07-10 11:37

British mercenary Simon Mann was sentenced to 34 years in jail on Monday by a court in Equatorial Guinea following a failed 2004 coup attempt in that country. South Africa’s foreign affairs department responded by saying that the sentence signaled an end to the days of military coups in Africa. But the recent sham election in Zimbabwe, which was carried out under South Africa’s nose, was no better than a military coup and in many respects far worse.

SAIRR Today: Ten points to turn around the South African Police Service - 4th July 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-07-04 12:42

The South African Police Service brought out 2007/08 crime figures this week. Overall they showed that most categories of crime continued to be slightly down year on year. The general post-2003/4 decline in crime levels therefore continued. While certain kinds of crime such as house robberies and hijackings increased the police appear satisfied that their targets of a 7%-10% annual reduction in certain crime types are being met. Is this good enough?

SAIRR Today: Zuma’s friends will have to kill millions - 27th June 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-06-27 09:10

Julius Malema and Zwelinzima Vavi have both uttered statements that they are prepared to kill anyone standing between Zuma and the presidency. They have also in the past insinuated that the free press, the due process of law, the political opposition, and even political activity within the ANC, have somehow conspired against Zuma. But the real threats to Zuma come not from any of the above but from the poor and the unemployed. If Malema and Vavi want to kill to protect Zuma they will have to start here.

SAIRR Today: African growth - 20th June 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-06-20 09:09

Economic data from a number of African economies demonstrate that these are outperforming South Africa. While South Africa remains the continent’s biggest economy it is no longer certain that the continent’s economic destiny depends on South Africa’s performance. With South Africa’s own growth rates under pressure it may be a useful exercise to pay close attention to promising economic performances on display north of our borders.

SAIRR Today: Prague spring or flash in the pan? - 13th June 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-06-13 08:43

A development that has accompanied the fall of Thabo Mbeki is that South Africans seem far more willing to hold political leaders to account than was the case just a year ago. Newspaper editorials, columnists, news bulletins, business leaders, and civil society organizations appear to have lost much of the fear that once kept them in awe of the ANC. Will this Prague spring survive or is it simply a flash in the pan until the next government takes office in 2009?

SAIRR Today: A better life for all - 6th June 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-06-10 09:27

Much bitter criticism has been directed at Thabo Mbeki and his failed government over the past month. The Institute issued what was widely described as a “scathing indictment” of Mbeki’s tenure in office. No doubt all of that criticism was well deserved by a complacent government that stood by when it should have been apparent that the wheels were coming off for South Africa. But the criticism, our own included, has arguably ignored one vital point - that Thabo Mbeki and his government were elected freely and democratically by a large majority.

SAIRR Today: Look on my works ye mighty, and despair! - 30 May 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-05-30 11:12

Crisis time has hit, and South Africa finds itself effectively leaderless. The nation is faced with challenges that perhaps surpass even those faced under apartheid, and there is seemingly no-one at the tiller to navigate the stormy waters.

SAIRR Today: Will we ever be able to live with each other? - 23 May 2008 — by Marco Macfarlane — last modified 2008-05-23 12:07

South Africa is reeling from the xenophobic attacks that continue to rage across the country. Far from dying down, these violent incidents seem to be spreading and intensifying. These events raise important questions about our society, and paint a very gloomy picture of our national psyche.

SAIRR today: Tyranny of the majority - 16th May 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-05-16 10:36

The Institute is greatly concerned by events in Alexandra which have now spread to other Gauteng townships. The African immigrant community in Alexandra was hounded and terrorized by South Africans angry at the presence of foreign Africans in South Africa. Reports and our own inspection of affected areas indicate that scores of people were injured and some killed and raped in an orgy of mob violence. Thousands took shelter at local police stations. The police fought running night time battles for much of the week and struggled to maintain some semblance of law and order amid trying circumstances.

SAIRR today: South African solutions for South African problems - 9th May 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-05-13 12:09

On Thursday 8th May 2008 the Institute hosted a panel of five of South Africa’s leading economists to discuss growth forecasts for South Africa’s economy. The panel was made up of Azar Jammine, Ulrich Joubert, Elna Moolman, Dawie Roodt, and Chris Hart. While they were not unanimous in all their views a number of common themes emerged from their discussion. These offer hope that better governance and policies could help South Africa’s economy recover from the shocks of Eskom, interest rate hikes, and high fuel prices – to mention but a few.

SAIRR today: A great victory for Africa - 25th April 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-04-25 09:38

A week ago the Institute issued a statement that the transport of arms for Zimbabwe across South Africa would put ‘South Africa’s culpability in the Zimbabwe crisis beyond question’. Prior to 2008 the South African government’s response to such a statement would have been something along the line of old ‘kith and kin’ loyalties, white racism, and Zimbabwe’s sovereignty. Quiet diplomacy would have been put forward as the official policy and the arms would already have arrived in Zimbabwe. This time, however, something else happened.

SAIRR Today: Fear and loathing in the rainbow nation - 18 April 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-04-21 15:04

Two events over the past ten days each provided a useful perspective on crime and violence in our society. Together they inform a suggestion about what might be done to change the impunity with which criminals have come to operate.

SAIRR today: Expropriation by Executive Fiat - 11th April 2008 — by Chris — last modified 2008-04-18 15:09

Though the Expropriation Bill of 2008 is ostensibly to speed up land reform, it puts many other property rights at risk. For the bill applies not only to immovable property but also to rights in property and movable property, without limitation. It thus governs not only land and mineral rights but also business premises, homes, patents, and shares. It allows expropriation in the public interest by executive fiat and limits the relief available through the courts. It indicates that compensation will be less than market value and seeks to exclude damages for loss suffered. It also puts pressure on expropriated owners to accept the state’s decisions on the amount, timing, and manner of payment of compensation.

SAIRR today: Zimbabwe: Kenyan déjà vu? 4th April 2008 — by Frans Cronje — last modified 2008-04-16 13:57

The violence that followed the recent elections in Kenya offers important lessons to other African states trying to escape effective one party rule and move towards a multi-party democracy. The current Zimbabwe elections are a case in point where the similarities to the Kenyan situation outweigh the differences. This is particularly poignant considering what seems to be President Robert Mugabe’s resistance to looming defeat, and promising this morning to “defend the revolution” at all costs, including mobilizing the war veterans.

SAIRR today: Electricity price hikes: The poor will carry the costs - 28th March 2008 — by Fcronje@sairr.org.za — last modified 2008-03-28 15:29

The government through the minister of public enterprises this week announced that electricity prices would have to increased by 60% this year to avoid a 100% price increase next year. The government is correct that a price hike is necessary although it has been vague about the extent of future hikes, as Business Day pointed out this week. The government is wrong though to suggest that poor communities will be shielded from the full extent of the price hikes. They will carry the brunt of the costs.

SAIRR today: Six points that could fix the education system - 21st March 2008 — by Chris — last modified 2008-03-28 09:17

A number of analysts with the notable exception of the head of the Employment Equity Commission, Mr Jimmy Manyi, have identified skills shortages as a constraint on growth in the period to 2010 and beyond. Solving the crisis will require that the education department delivers a quality of school leaver to the labour market and the tertiary education sector that a growing industrialized economy demands. This will require the scrapping of outcomes based education, a greater degree of mother tongue education, re-opening the teacher training colleges, more bursaries for poor tertiary students, and handing control of schools to parents and teachers. Unfortunately there is nothing on the education horizon in either policy or delivery that suggests that the education department will act with the required determination.

SAIRR today: Electricity supply imposes a new speed limit on economic growth 14th March 2008 — by Chris — last modified 2008-03-20 12:26

The forthcoming (March) edition of Fast Facts suggests that electricity supply constraints will keep GDP growth levels below 5% for at least the next ten years.

SAIRR today: Tertiary education transformation - the numbers tell the true story 7th March 2008 — by Chris — last modified 2008-03-19 09:33

The past two weeks have seen a large amount of negative sentiment about race relations and integration in South Africa. Predictably much of this has centered around the tertiary education sector in South Africa. The Institute has gone on the record to say that racial tensions in the country have risen over the past month as indeed they have. This is not surprising considering the nature of the Kovsies incident and the fact that South Africa remains a grossly unequal society.

SAIRR today: Mixed messages emanating from new ANC 29th February 2008 — by Chris — last modified 2008-03-19 09:33

Straddling a range of diverse interest groups threatens to unravel Jacob Zuma’s ambitions to become South Africa’s president in 2009. In presenting mixed messages about economic policy, governance, and race relations Zuma risks losing support from factions on both the left and right of South Africa’s political divide. As an accomplished politician he might manage the growing contradictions for some time to come but events over the past two weeks suggest that Zuma would be well advised to lay his cards openly on the table sooner rather than later.