The decline of the Inkatha Freedom Party was probably as important as any of the other major trends in the recent general election. KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) still runs counter to the overall national pattern of unchallenged single-party dominance.

Four key trends characterised the general election on 14th April. The first was that the African National Congress (ANC), despite raking in more than a million fewer votes than in 1994, won a 70% majority. Second was that the Democratic Alliance (DA), though it failed to win as many seats as it predicted, mustered 1.6m more votes than its predecessor, the Democratic Party, did in that first post-apartheid election. Third was the drop from 4m to barely a quarter of a million in the votes for the (New) National Party (NNP).

The fourth — and perhaps the most significant — development was the poor performance of the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP). It garnered 2m votes in 1994 — despite its last-minute entry into the election—but only 1m in 2004. Even on its home territory, KwaZulu-Natal, the IFP saw its vote drop — by nearly 50%.

Unless the IFP can reverse its  decline on its home ground, black opposition to the ANC will shrink even further than it already has. Next time round, the ANC may even win more than 70% of the vote. Theoretically this could be prevented if the DA and other smaller parties can make major inroads into ANC support. However, it is difficult to see how they will do so given the ANC’s command of the structures of the state and its policies of racial preferencing — which will appeal to blacks as much as the previous government’s racial policies appealed to whites.

Since no party won an absolute majority in KZN, that province will have to be ruled for the next five years by coalitions—either between the ANC and the IFP or between the ANC and minority parties. The deals initially struck may not last until the next election. This might be a formula for instabilility in government. It might prompt another spate of floor-crossings. But it also provides an opportunity for a thriving multiparty system in which the two major parties will be in constant competition for support given the possibility that the next election could see a change in the identity of the biggest party.

Even though provincial powers are limited, KZN could thus be a laboratory for democratic competition with major consequences. This is unlikely in other provinces given the overwhelming position of the ANC.

—John Kane-Berman