Research & Policy Brief

The current public service strike has brought to the fore the bitter nature of the power struggle at play in the ruling ANC/SACP/COSATU alliance. Our current assessment is that factions in the alliance, perhaps led by the ANC Youth League, are preparing to execute a political coup at the ANC’s 2012 conference in Bloemfontein. At its most serious this political shift may include the axing of Jacob Zuma and his forced resignation as president of South Africa.

At the very least infighting ahead of the 2012 conference will continue to destabilize the alliance. This will have the effect of destabilizing the broader policy environment in the country and therefore causing a rise in levels of uncertainty about the future of the country.

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Welcome to SAIRR

Unit for Risk Analysis

URAThe Unit for Risk Analysis is designed to inform business, political, government, and diplomatic leaders about risks likely to emerge on South Africa’s social, economic, and political horizon. The Unit reviews all the Institute’s research outputs through the prism of future risk.

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The Long Shadow of Apartheid
the-long-shadow-of-apartheid.jpgThe Institute’s research on changing racial sentiment in South Africa since 1994 has been published under the title The Long Shadow of Apartheid: Race in South Africa since 1994. The research includes interviews with senior business and academic leaders in South Africa.
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